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NAB CUP
March 16, 2010, 13:15 PM

Dream Team Player Price Disparities

If you remember the NQR stores that sprung up around Victoria you know what I'm talking about. They were grocery stores that sold items that were "not quite right". This meant cans of baked beans that were dented and expiry dates that were a little bit expired.

In fantasy football, this usually means players who sustained a significant injury in 2009 that have gotten a discount on their 2010 starting price.

A case study on how you would use this information. Take Beau Waters (WCE). His Dream Team 2009 starting salary or price was $305600 (SP2009). His 2010 salary is $152800 (SP2010).

So when the 2009 season started, he was priced in at scoring about 69 DT points. This season, he is priced in at scoring about 34 DT points. Now we need to ask why is there a price disparity.

A little research shows he missed 2009 because of complications to an elbow injury he suffered in 2008. This is the caveat. But looking at 2007, he averaged almost 80 DT points in 19 games and his NAB Challenge form shows scores of 51 and 87 in rounds 2, 3 and 4 (NAB2, NAB3, NAB4).

Based on his NAB challenge average, his final price is expected to increase around 101% (EXP. PRICE INCR).
Some final consideration points are;

  • Pick #11 2003 AFL Draft so has talent.
  • Is a defender cash cows or bargains at this position are hard to come by.

Now we can make a more informed decision on a player like Waters ...
So I would recommend using the table below in the same vein, as a quick hit short list of players that may be worthy of consideration.


FILTER:  
SALARY INCREASE : MORE THAN
ID NAMECLUBPOS1POS2GAMES 2009AVG 2009SP 2009SP 2010NAB 1NAB 2NAB 3NAB 4PRICE RATIOEXP. PRICE INCR
734BeauWATERSWCE DEFNA00305600152800 5187702102
135RobertWARNOCKCAR RUCNA0020360010180023514148278
295JoshHUNTGEE DEFNA002735001641007235 541.6746
3BrettBURTONADE FWDNA552.237440022940082   1.6359
196DavidHILLEESS RUCNA467.5381400237300 65 971.6152
706BrettJONESWCE DEFNA946.11311500202600326472651.5428
544JaySCHULZPTA FWDNA456.753034001995008251 391.5228
512DanielCONNORSRIC MIDNA235.52343001560009864 621.5113
302TomLONERGANGEE FWDNA946.112990002026002791 571.4828
211MarkMCVEIGHESS MIDNA1161.09395200268400828562 1.4727
322TrentWESTGEE RUCNA113147900101500 34  1.4649
585MattMAGUIREBRL DEFNA00145300101700 70 401.43141
203JasonLAYCOCKESS RUCNA00222400155700 4757 1.4349
625NickMALCESKISYD DEFNA1255.252988002428008310043 1.2338
186TomBELLCHAMBERSESS RUCNA63517600015380054 44 1.1442
83TomROCKLIFFBRL FWDNA1231066001011008789 481.05229
79AlbertPROUDBRL MIDNA1350.92223800223800 81  161
98EddieBETTSCAR FWDNA2162.43263500274300 11062890.9641
499PaulSTEWARTPTA DEFMID747.43198500208400707054540.9532
63ScottHARDINGPTA MIDNA1446.14190200202800 8656600.9448
1234




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