March 16, 2010, 13:15 PM
Dream Team Player Price Disparities
If you remember the NQR stores that sprung up around Victoria you know what I'm
talking about. They were grocery stores that sold items that were "not quite right".
This meant cans of baked beans that were dented and expiry dates that were a little
bit expired.
In fantasy football, this usually means players who sustained a significant injury
in 2009 that have gotten a discount on their 2010 starting price.
A case study on how you would use this information. Take Beau Waters (WCE). His
Dream Team 2009 starting salary or price was $305600 (SP2009).
His 2010 salary is $152800 (SP2010).
So when the 2009 season started, he was priced in at scoring about 69 DT points.
This season, he is priced in at scoring about 34 DT points. Now we need to ask why
is there a price disparity.
A little research shows he missed 2009 because of complications to an elbow injury
he suffered in 2008. This is the caveat. But looking at 2007, he averaged almost
80 DT points in 19 games and his NAB Challenge form shows scores of 51 and 87 in
rounds 2, 3 and 4 (NAB2, NAB3, NAB4).
Based on his NAB challenge average, his final price is expected to increase around
101% (EXP. PRICE INCR).
Some final consideration points are;
- Pick #11 2003 AFL Draft so has talent.
- Is a defender cash cows or bargains at this position are hard to come by.
Now we can make a more informed decision on a player like Waters ...
So I would recommend using the table below in the same vein, as a quick hit short
list of players that may be worthy of consideration.
FILTER:
SALARY INCREASE :
MORE THAN
| ID | | NAME | CLUB | POS1 | POS2 | GAMES 2009 | AVG 2009 | SP 2009 | SP 2010 | NAB 1 | NAB 2 | NAB 3 | NAB 4 | PRICE RATIO | EXP. PRICE INCR |
| 734 | Beau | WATERS | WCE | DEF | NA | 0 | 0 | 305600 | 152800 | | 51 | 87 | 70 | 2 | 102 |
| 135 | Robert | WARNOCK | CAR | RUC | NA | 0 | 0 | 203600 | 101800 | 23 | 51 | 41 | 48 | 2 | 78 |
| 295 | Josh | HUNT | GEE | DEF | NA | 0 | 0 | 273500 | 164100 | 72 | 35 | | 54 | 1.67 | 46 |
| 3 | Brett | BURTON | ADE | FWD | NA | 5 | 52.2 | 374400 | 229400 | 82 | | | | 1.63 | 59 |
| 196 | David | HILLE | ESS | RUC | NA | 4 | 67.5 | 381400 | 237300 | | 65 | | 97 | 1.61 | 52 |
| 706 | Brett | JONES | WCE | DEF | NA | 9 | 46.11 | 311500 | 202600 | 32 | 64 | 72 | 65 | 1.54 | 28 |
| 544 | Jay | SCHULZ | PTA | FWD | NA | 4 | 56.75 | 303400 | 199500 | 82 | 51 | | 39 | 1.52 | 28 |
| 512 | Daniel | CONNORS | RIC | MID | NA | 2 | 35.5 | 234300 | 156000 | 98 | 64 | | 62 | 1.5 | 113 |
| 302 | Tom | LONERGAN | GEE | FWD | NA | 9 | 46.11 | 299000 | 202600 | 27 | 91 | | 57 | 1.48 | 28 |
| 211 | Mark | MCVEIGH | ESS | MID | NA | 11 | 61.09 | 395200 | 268400 | 82 | 85 | 62 | | 1.47 | 27 |
| 322 | Trent | WEST | GEE | RUC | NA | 1 | 13 | 147900 | 101500 | | 34 | | | 1.46 | 49 |
| 585 | Matt | MAGUIRE | BRL | DEF | NA | 0 | 0 | 145300 | 101700 | | 70 | | 40 | 1.43 | 141 |
| 203 | Jason | LAYCOCK | ESS | RUC | NA | 0 | 0 | 222400 | 155700 | | 47 | 57 | | 1.43 | 49 |
| 625 | Nick | MALCESKI | SYD | DEF | NA | 12 | 55.25 | 298800 | 242800 | 83 | 100 | 43 | | 1.23 | 38 |
| 186 | Tom | BELLCHAMBERS | ESS | RUC | NA | 6 | 35 | 176000 | 153800 | 54 | | 44 | | 1.14 | 42 |
| 83 | Tom | ROCKLIFF | BRL | FWD | NA | 1 | 23 | 106600 | 101100 | 87 | 89 | | 48 | 1.05 | 229 |
| 79 | Albert | PROUD | BRL | MID | NA | 13 | 50.92 | 223800 | 223800 | | 81 | | | 1 | 61 |
| 98 | Eddie | BETTS | CAR | FWD | NA | 21 | 62.43 | 263500 | 274300 | | 110 | 62 | 89 | 0.96 | 41 |
| 499 | Paul | STEWART | PTA | DEF | MID | 7 | 47.43 | 198500 | 208400 | 70 | 70 | 54 | 54 | 0.95 | 32 |
| 63 | Scott | HARDING | PTA | MID | NA | 14 | 46.14 | 190200 | 202800 | | 86 | 56 | 60 | 0.94 | 48 |