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March 01, 2009, 16:30 PM

Cash Cows and Sleepers


Cash cows are bargain basement priced players (generally rookies) who are there just to play and appreciate (in value). Once they reach their peak salary, you rinse and repeat. Get another cash cow in and pocket the cash to upgrade the mid range players or other cash cows. This rinse and repeat process is aimed at turning a Rich into a Montagna or Swan eventually.

For example, assuming you picked Daniel Rich (BRL) and Nick Suban (ESS) at the beginning of the year for $126,600 and $86,600 respectively. By weeks 10 they were $286000 and $189300. Cash in on Suban and you were able to upgrade Rich to Cooney.

Understand the breakeven, price calculations and you can make better decisions on when to trade in or out cash cows.

Sleepers are players who has not yet put up big numbers but has some potential within the coming season to exceed what is expected of them. In relation to Dream Team and Super Coach, his salary value must also be at low levels.

The perfect example for 2009 is Mitch Clark. As a first round pick (number #9 overall) in 2005, he was expected to be a good player but to that point hasn't really shown much. 11 games in 2008 (DT avg. 49) and 4 games in 2007 (DT avg. 54).

Clark ended the season as a fantasy star and for the last 11 weeks the number 1 ruckman.

Farren Ray is another player who had potential, being the number #4 pick in the 2003 draft, but hadn't produced anything of significance for the Bulldogs. He then played in every game for St. Kilda averaging of 94 SC and 90 DT points


These two fantasy player types are combined based on the fact that they represent the most effective ways of increasing the number of guns to your list.


Defenders
Player Comment
Josh Hunt (GEE) $164,100 (DT) Coming back from doing his knee 12 months ago, it looks like Hunt will regain his spot in the team. His price is significantly discounts and has scored well in the first NAB Cup game with 17 disposals and 72 DT points.


Midfielders
Player Comment
Brodie Moles (WBD) $83,800 (DT) Moles form in the NAB Cup has elevated his status as a potential cash cow star. A modest 16 touch, 42 (DT) point performance showing clean hands in the Canberra down pour, was followed up by 19 touches 75 (DT) points against the Hawks at Etihad. This week the team placed their No. 1 pick (Howard) on the long term injury list opening the way for his elevation to the senior list. Eagleton is working his way back into the team after preseason knee problems may mean Moles gets some games this year.
Hamish Hartlett (PTA) $288,400 (DT) The departures of the Burgoyne boys have opened the doors for this high first round pick. Showed poise when given the chance. Port Adelaide is a team desperate to inject youth and enthusiasm into the lineup, so look for them to give Hartlett a crack at rotating significantly in the midfield. Update: Has not played the first 2 NAB Cup games so track his injury progress.
Jack Redden (BRL) $265,900 (DT) Has bulked up 6kg and looks to compete for playing time now that Dalziell is gone and the fab. five are down to two and ageing. Had three 90+ point SC games in his debut last year from 8. And three 82+ DT points. Was inconsistent, but that's generally what defines a rookie season. Update: 17 disposals and 75 DT points in the Canberra downpour against the Bulldogs.


Rucks
Player Comment
Nick Naitanui (WBD) $232,400 (DT) Naitanui is causing a bit of a stir in the AFL and will be a popular pick in 2010. In dream team, he scored 115 without Cox and 66 with. In super coach, the numbers were 178 and 68 respectively. Given Cox's recent injury woes, and Naitanui's fair value price for DT is around the 52 point average mark, this is a pickup that only really has upside.


Forwards
Player Comment
Eddie Betts (CAR) Sorry Carlton fans, you won't be able to replace a Brendan Fevola. But look for Betts to play a significant role in the forward line and be a 50+ goal kicking. Betts was number two behind Fevola last year and his goal-sense was on display last year so expect the Carlton coaches to work out a way to get Betts a decent share of goals Fevola is taking with him to Brisbane. 20 touches, 10 marks and 110 DT points in his NAB Challenge Round 2.
Carl Petersen (HAW) $94,500 (DT) Petersen showed enough of a spark in the second NAB Cup game to suggest he may get some games in 2010. 13 disposals and 48 DT points. Add to this the fact that has been on the Hawks list a couple of years and is a name known to Hawks fans even before the Bulldogs game. He may even make the team on his own, but is definitely one Rioli groin pull from playing a lot of games in 2010.

TOP PLAYER PROJECTIONS FOR 2010 (DT)

 NAMECLUBRANK
GaryABLETT71
DaneSWAN42
LeighMONTAGNA133
PaulCHAPMAN74
JimmyBARTEL75
LennyHAYES136
NickRIEWOLDT137
SteveJOHNSON78
BryceGIBBS39
AdamCOONEY1610


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